The Signal – February 15, 2026

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NAR’s chief economist called it a “new housing crisis” this week. January home sales dropped 8.4% — the biggest monthly decline in four years. And honestly? The number is bad. But there’s a difference between a crisis and a problem that’s been building for three years finally showing up in the data. In this week’s breakdown I walk through what the number actually means, what’s genuinely new in the market right now, and what smart agents should be thinking about differently because of it. 

This week I cover: — Why the January sales drop is backward-looking and what it’s actually measuring — The new-build/resale price inversion and why it almost never happens — What $10,900 in added tariff costs per new home means for the builder discount window — Why this is a confidence problem, not an affordability problem — and why that matters for how you work buyers — What 64 days on market means for seller pricing conversations right now 

This content starts as my own weekly research. I’m VP of Growth at ENRG Realty and every Sunday I go through the market data I actually need to stay sharp and make good decisions. At some point I started putting it on camera. If it’s useful to you, that’s the point. 

THE SIGNAL drops every week — real estate market intelligence without the hype. Subscribe so you don’t miss it. Want to talk through how any of this applies to your market or your business? Drop a comment or reach out directly. No pitch. Just a real conversation.

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