Why “Waiting for the Market to Come Back” Is the Wrong Play

Everyone keeps saying the same thing: rates are gonna drop, inventory’s gonna flood back, transaction volume returns to something that feels normal again. Just hang tight till the market “comes back.”

Here’s the thing though… that whole idea is built on the assumption that 2021 was normal. It wasn’t. That was emergency monetary policy meeting a pandemic housing scramble meeting historically low rates. That was chaos, not normal.

What we’re sitting in right now? Rates around 6%, inventory slowly coming back, transaction volume that’s flat to maybe slightly up? This is way closer to actual equilibrium than anything we’ve seen in five years.

The Structural Problems Aren’t Going Away

Let’s talk rate lock for a second. Eighty percent of homeowners are sitting on mortgages below 6%. If rates drop to 5.75%, or even 5.5%, that doesn’t change anything for someone locked in at 3%. The math just doesn’t work. And that inventory problem isn’t fixing itself anytime soon.

First-time buyers are getting crushed right now. Lowest market share since 1981. And it’s not because they don’t want to buy.  Affordability is still brutal even with all these so-called “improvements.” Prices are still creeping up, wages aren’t keeping pace, and down payments are still this massive barrier.

Transaction forecasts for 2026? We’re looking at 4.0 to 4.4 million existing home sales. That’s basically flat, maybe a little up from 2025. But compare that to the 5-6 million that was normal before the pandemic. We’re not getting back there.

What That Means for How You’re Positioning

If volume’s not really coming back, the agents who are gonna win are the ones who figure out that leverage comes from being different now, not just from being busy.

Days on market are going up. That’s actually not a bad thing, it’s an opportunity. More time on market means buyers are really thinking through their options and sellers are getting in their feelings about pricing. If you can actually add value in those moments, you’re essential. If you can’t, you’re basically just the person with MLS access.

The whole lead gen playbook from 2021 is falling apart. CoStar just pulled $300 million from Homes.com. That’s a pretty clear signal that the portal wars are cooling off. And buying leads is still expensive as hell while your conversion rates stay low. If you’re leaning hard on portals, you’re just paying a tax. Agents with real databases, local credibility, actual referral networks — those are the ones building something that lasts.

The Compensation Thing Still Isn’t Over

January 14, the Eighth Circuit is hearing arguments on the NAR settlement appeal. If they blow it up, we’re starting over. Again. If it holds, cool, the new rules stick.

But either way, the deeper shift is already done. Clients are questioning what they’re paying for. Buyers are asking why they need to pay you at all. Sellers are negotiating way harder than they used to.

If your whole value proposition is tied to MLS access and opening doors, you’re exposed. If it’s tied to actual pricing strategy, negotiation skills, deal structure… you’re good.

What You Should Actually Be Doing

The play right now isn’t chasing volume. It’s becoming the agent people actually choose on purpose.

That means getting off the portal dependency train and building something where people come to you because you have a reputation, you get results, you get referrals.

It means getting better at the basics: pricing, negotiation, communication. The market doesn’t forgive average anymore like it did in 2021. And honestly? That’s probably a good thing.

It also means understanding that all these tactics – the AI tools, the video templates, the social media hacks — those aren’t strategies. They’re just amplifiers. If what you’re doing underneath is weak, you’re just amplifying that weakness.

Stop Waiting and Start Moving

The market’s not going back to 2021. This is the market now. It’s balanced. It’s transactional. It’s less forgiving.

The agents who get that and adjust their approach are gonna have real leverage. The agents still waiting around for things to get easier? They’re gonna be waiting a long time.